The third danger Hultman notes dates again to COVID-19 and right now’s variants, which he says appear to be getting a bit out of hand, particularly in some Asian international locations.
“It appears that there’s nonetheless discuss of proscribing financial exercise due to this,” he mentioned. “This continues to be a nagging concern regardless that the general world financial system is best this 12 months than final 12 months.”
SOY CASH PRICES REMAIN ABOVE $ 12
On the time of publication, the USDA had a mean farm gate worth for brand spanking new season soybeans at $ 13.70 / bushel. Hultman mentioned if this had been true, it might be the best worth producers have seen for the product since 2012-13.
Assuming a yield of fifty bushels per acre (bpf) on about 86.7 million projected harvested acres, the Hultman anticipates a really tight market. This means spot costs of about $ 13.50 / bushel on common for brand spanking new crop soybeans. Hultman mentioned he can be shocked to see soybean costs drop under $ 12 / bushel.
Watching the climate throughout August might be important as that is when the soybean pods refill, making well timed rains at this level within the season important for good yields. So, though it has been dry within the Northwest and Midwestern manufacturing areas up to now, well timed rains might nonetheless put together growers for better-than-expected fall harvests.
“Harvest situations at the moment (early July) had been rated 59% good to glorious by the USDA,” Hultman added. “Within the final 12 years we have solely seen twice the place it was worse, 2019 and 2012. So it is the third worst 12 months up to now. We’ll should see what the remainder of the season brings. . “
China will as soon as once more be a key participant in relation to the path of soybean costs, Hultman noting that from all out there clues, it seems the nation nonetheless has a really sturdy urge for food for soybeans. Their pig herd has been rebuilt to pre-African swine fever ranges. And shopping for exercise within the Brazilian market has despatched a sign that the Chinese language are searching for soybeans.
“Earlier this 12 months, Brazil had a report harvest of 5 billion bushels of soybeans,” he famous. “It was big, and China has been making massive purchases since then. Right now Brazilian soybean costs are near US costs, and it’s early July. So we all know China is shortly recovering the excess from the Brazil, and in a couple of month, they will be turning to the US for soybeans, which is sooner than common. “
WINTER WHEAT MARKER AT $ 5 THE BUSHEL
With rising corn costs, extra wheat might find yourself in feed rations for livestock. The USDA is searching for common farm wheat costs for the season at $ 6.60 / bushel for the brand new 2021-22 season, based mostly on 665 million bushels of ending wheat shares. That is the bottom since 2013-14.
“As we glance exterior of North America, the main wheat rising areas of the world are doing nicely. Probably the most threatened wheat crop this 12 months is spring wheat within the northwestern plains, the place drought situations stay extreme. This may enhance the costs of spring wheat. Will probably be troublesome to examine a state of affairs the place arduous pink winter wheat drops under $ 4.80 / bushel to $ 5 / bushel this fall, ”Hultman mentioned. He added that it’ll even be troublesome to export wheat this 12 months as a result of the harvest has been good in a lot of the world.
“The provision of wheat in the US is estimated at its lowest degree in eight years,” he mentioned. “So we do not see numerous draw back danger within the coming 12 months.”
COTTON PRICE OF APPROXIMATELY 75 CENTS PER POUND
Primarily based on 3.3 million bales of closing US cotton shares for the 2021-22 season, the USDA has projected cotton costs at 75 cents per pound on common. Hultman factors out that the extent of ending shares for US cotton is the bottom in 5 years.
“We’re additionally seeing that cotton costs are benefiting from sturdy demand, and space estimates have fallen to round 11.7 million acres. The unique plantation estimate was 12 million acres,” mentioned Hultman. “This smaller planting estimate might assist push costs previous the 75-cent mark, to 76 cents / pound.”
Cotton futures costs in December on the time of publication had been 88 cents / lb, which Hultman mentioned was overly optimistic on condition that the crop score is 52% good to glorious, which is best than the 43% of final 12 months across the identical time.
“I feel we are going to see cotton costs this fall with market assist of 74 cents per pound, probably dropping to the 78 cents per pound degree. There’s a upside danger for stronger export demand than USDA at the moment estimates, however I mood that with issues about COVID points over the following 12 months. ”
For extra DTN protection on the newest USDA numbers for merchandise, go to:
Victoria Myers might be reached at [email protected]
Comply with her on Twitter @myersPF
(c) Copyright 2021 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.