Goldman Sachs inventory on the prime of the consensus within the second quarter?

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) is predicted to launch its outcomes for the second quarter of fiscal 2021 on Tuesday, July 13. We anticipate Goldman Sachs to beat consensus estimates for each income and earnings. The financial institution considerably outperformed consensus estimates within the first quarter of 2021. This growth is principally because of a major improve in funding banking earnings and year-on-year gross sales and transactions, adopted by constructive enterprise progress. asset administration. We additionally anticipate the identical pattern to proceed within the second quarter of fiscal 2021.


Our forecast signifies that Goldman Sachs valuation is round $ 385 per share, which is 5% greater than the present market value of $ 368. Take a look at our interactive dashboard evaluation at Goldman Sachs pre-earnings: what to anticipate within the second quarter? for extra particulars.

(1) Anticipated income barely increased than consensus estimates in Q2

Trefis estimates Goldman Sachs second-quarter 2021 income to be round $ 11.98 billion, barely above the consensus estimate of $ 11.79 billion. GS income jumped 22% in 2020, reaching $ 44.6 billion, principally pushed by elevated income from gross sales and buying and selling and funding banking. The expansion was complemented by a rise in earnings from wealth banking and private banking companies. However, the one division that suffered within the 12 months was asset administration. Whereas the expansion momentum of the funding banking and gross sales and buying and selling actions additionally continued within the first quarter of 2021, asset administration additionally noticed robust progress pushed by file revenues within the sub-segment of fairness investments. We anticipate the identical momentum to proceed within the second quarter of fiscal 2021 as effectively.

Gross sales & buying and selling and funding banking revenues are associated respectively to transaction volumes and subscription volumes, which have skilled an uncommon improve in latest quarters. Nevertheless, we anticipate the 2 to normalize over the subsequent few months. That stated, the wealth administration and asset administration companies are anticipated to proceed their progress trajectory in the course of the 12 months. General, the corporate’s income is predicted to succeed in $ 49.8 billion in fiscal 2021. Our dashboard on Goldman Sachs income affords extra particulars on the enterprise segments.

2) EPS prone to exceed consensus estimates

Goldman Sachs adjusted earnings per share within the second quarter of 2021 is predicted to be $ 9.58 per Trefis evaluation, simply above the consensus estimate of $ 9.45. GS profitability figures improved in 2020, pushed by increased revenues and decrease working bills as a% of revenues. On the flip facet, the corporate elevated its provisions for credit score losses in 2020 to offset the upper threat of default. Though the financial institution’s mortgage portfolio just isn’t as giant as its friends, the buildup of provisions has had a unfavourable impression on its profitability. Particularly, the agency has decreased its provisions in latest quarters, suggesting a sure restoration in its clients’ mortgage reimbursement capability. The identical pattern additionally continued within the first quarter of 2021 and is predicted to drive second quarter outcomes as effectively.

Goldman Sachs’ web revenue margin is predicted to enhance in the course of the 12 months. This may deliver Goldman’s EPS determine to $ 44.02 in fiscal 2021.

(3) Estimated share value 5% increased than present market value

By our Goldman Sachs valuation, with an EPS estimate of round $ 44.02 and a P / E a number of slightly below 9x in fiscal 2021, that interprets to a value of $ 385, or 5% above the worth. present market of $ 368.


Be aware: P / E multiples are primarily based on the inventory value on the finish of the 12 months and reported (or anticipated) adjusted earnings for the whole 12 months

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