World commodity costs are rising, and specialists say it will result in greater costs in supermarkets from the beginning of subsequent 12 months.
Shopper costs in Belgium are at present falling once more after the sharp will increase in 2020 in the course of the coronavirus pandemic, however that won’t stay the case subsequent 12 months.
In line with the Flemish Infocenter for Agriculture and Horticulture (VILT), costs will improve in 2022 and shoppers will see it within the aisles of their grocery shops.
Over the previous 12 months and a half, a number of commodities have seen tangible value will increase – some as excessive as 17% – as is the case for wheat, sugar, meat, dairy, vegetable oils and extra.
In June, FAO, the Meals and Agriculture Group of the United Nations, reported that world meals costs had risen 40 p.c since Might and have been at their highest stage in a decade.
Nicholas Courant of the Federation of the Belgian Meals Trade (FEVIA), cited a number of causes in an interview with Het Laatste Nieuws.
“There are climatic points, for instance the espresso harvest in Brazil and the wheat harvest in Canada have been disappointing,” he mentioned.
“There are the aftermath of the pandemic, which not solely prompted a dramatic change in shopper habits but additionally disrupted the whole international provide chain, with transport prices seven to 10 instances greater for a sea container. “
Courant mentioned that even geopolitical causes play a job: for instance, some international locations hold uncooked supplies to themselves, which will increase shortage.
In Belgium, the dangerous climate situations this summer time resulted in poor harvests.
With wheat, for instance, a poor harvest causes the worth of flour to rise, which is able to have an effect on the worth of a loaf of bread, which is predicted to be as much as 10 cents dearer subsequent 12 months.
To this point, the rise in uncooked materials costs has not translated right into a dearer buying cart for shoppers this 12 months, though it ought to be famous that costs in Belgian supermarkets are already excessive. and acquired an additional increase final 12 months by the coronavirus disaster. .
In line with Pierre-Alexandre Billiet, CEO of Gondola, Belgian shopper costs are 12% greater than in neighboring international locations.
The Gondola Society is a community group of over 300 lively members within the retail trade.
Billiet, who can be a professor of retail and shopper items administration at Solvay Enterprise Faculty, talked about an anticipated value improve of round 5 to six p.c in an opinion piece in Gondola Journal.
Billiet mentioned the Belgian market follows international developments and predicts that the Colruyt grocery chain will emerge a winner from value will increase subsequent 12 months.
“Information analyzes present that Colruyt thrives in instances of inflation when shoppers turn into money-conscious,” Billiet wrote.
“It’s the solely retailer that has clear agreements with the manufacturers. It ensures the bottom value and may meet the diminished buying energy of the buyer. Analysis exhibits that it’s not financial buying energy that prevails in post-crisis conditions, however mimicry: shoppers who need to purchase one thing accomplish that.
He defined that in this time, feelings play a much bigger position than rational concerns about whether or not somebody can afford to purchase a product.
“Retailers have numerous tips to take care of buying energy elasticity in such a context, reminiscent of ‘purchase now, pay later’, subscriptions, and many others., a phenomenon that we’re additionally seeing increasingly immediately. hui, ”Billiet wrote.
Whereas the supermarkets themselves can not but reply the query of what the precise scale of the worth will increase can be and when they are going to occur, it relies upon loads on the negotiations for brand new contracts that happen within the fall. Roel Dekelver of Delhaize harassed that the grocery store is doing “all the pieces doable to maintain costs aggressive for purchasers”.
However FEVIA says it’s sure that the upper prices can be handed on to supermarkets.